That our competition was weak, your world domination model was unsustainable. That is why the US has a better shot at survival, we do not conquer, occupy and extract tax servitude. We do not exile our political adversaries to foreign lands, so that they might develop the power to defeat us.

 

Alexander Stephens, Vice President of the Confederate States of America
Cornerstone Speech
Savannah, Georgia
March 21, 1861

The new constitution has put at rest, forever, all the agitating questions relating to our peculiar institution -- African slavery as it exists amongst us -- the proper status of the negro in our form of civilization. This was the immediate cause of the late rupture and present revolution...

Our new government is founded...its foundations are laid, its corner- stone rests upon the great truth, that the negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery -- subordination to the superior race -- is his natural and normal condition. [Applause.] This, our new government, is the first, in the history of the world, based upon this great physical, philosophical, and moral truth.
*not_secure_link*www.ucs.louisiana.edu/~ras2777/amgov/stephens.html

 

There won't be a civil war. In the old days it was "Give me liberty or give me death."

Now days it's "Give me librium or give me meth."......

 

So we have a letter from on person stating that the reason was slavery.

But have you read the secession documents filed by the states? The reason was clearly given as being the federal government denying states rights.

"Confederate States of America - Declaration of the Immediate Causes Which Induce and Justify the Secession of South Carolina from the Federal Union
The people of the State of South Carolina, in Convention assembled, on the 26th day of April, A.D., 1852, declared that the frequent violations of the Constitution of the United States, by the Federal Government, and its encroachments upon the reserved rights of the States, fully justified this State in then withdrawing from the Federal Union; but in deference to the opinions and wishes of the other slaveholding States, she forbore at that time to exercise this right. Since that time, these encroachments have continued to increase, and further forbearance ceases to be a virtue.

And now the State of South Carolina having resumed her separate and equal place among nations, deems it due to herself, to the remaining United States of America, and to the nations of the world, that she should declare the immediate causes which have led to this act."

 

Unlikely, but not impossible.

There are many other countries likely to divide before the United States. This includes:

The United Kingdom; Scotland will be an independent country in my lifetime, that I am sure of, well, unless I die young.

Spain is very fractured, there has always been a very strong case for an independent Catalunya, most of the people there consider their Catalan identity far more important than their Spanish nationality, and if it were ever put to a referendum they would likely split. There are also the Basques who strongly oppose Spanish rule. With the ongoing economic turmoil brought on by EU rule, and the problems associated with the Eurozone, I feel these issues will only grow stronger and hasten the split in Spain.

Ukraine. Obvious reasons.

North Korea. I give this country 15 years. There will be a power struggle at some point, and with a starving population, I wouldn't be surprised if China steps in and annexes them.

Iraq. When Britain drew their borders on the map, they must have been pretty drunk. They didn't stop to think about whom they were grouping together, and whom they were splitting up. It took an evil dictator, and the threat of devastating retribution for any dissenters looking to break the country up, to hold the place together. The west of Iraq is dominated by Sunni conservatives, hence Islamic State's easy time seizing land there. The North is dominated by the Kurdish people, speaking from experience, some of the most amazing people I've ever had the privilege of meeting. And the South East is dominated by Shia Muslims. This is a country crying out to split into three.

Syria. Currently undergoing a three way civil war. Brutal dictatorship to hold onto power, liberal and moderate freedom fighters trying to bring about democracy, and Isis looking to build a caliphate.

Even China. While ever growing in wealth, population and power, there are some issues that have been lurking on the horizon for some time. Pollution, inequality, poverty and corruption cause a great number of issues China. While on the outside it looks as if the Chinese government runs a tight ship, there are a lot of cracks. Certain regions are looking to break free.

 

Not entirely sure about the politics going on in the USA and have enjoyed reading the coments of everyone. One thing I can say is that the UK certainly might split which in theory could cause a potential power vacuum in the EU which would end up sending out global ripples. This in turn may cause other countries to look more closely at their structure.

However the UK government are unlikely to allow this to happen and will sabotage any attempt that they can with all of the power at their disposal. We live in interesting times.

 

The Confederacy was fighting for the state right to practice slavery.

 

So you agree that it was about states rights, good.

 

The next great divide in America will be over religion. Those who have one or the other sect against those that do not. I am a fence sitter, and at 68 I doubt that I will be on the front line of anything other that the rhetoric.

 

The other issue, also mentioned in Alexander Stephens's speech was the tariff. The tariff was one issue where the Democrat Party disagreed with the Federalists, the Whigs, and the Republicans until American manufacturers developed the ability to move production to low wage countries.

During most of the nineteenth century European factories could produce better goods at lower prices than American factories, even when the price of shipping the produce across the Atlantic was factored in.

Without tariffs many Northern factory owners would have gone out of business. Their employees would lose their jobs. The survivors would make lower profits or wages.

Southern cotton and tobacco producers produced the best cotton and tobacco in the world at the lowest prices. They did not need tariff protection. For them tariffs meant that they had to pay higher prices for manufactured items.

If the South did not practice slavery, and if the Negroes there had equal rights, I do not think the Union would have been justified in fighting the South to keep the South in the Union. Nothing in the Constitution prohibits the right to secede. The Declaration of Independence implies the right to secede.

The Union cause was morally right, but legally ambiguous.

 

For most Americans religion is not a fighting issue. The religious right never had the power its supporters claimed, and its enemies feared. The leaders of the Republican Party never cared about the agenda of the religious right. They did little to advance that agenda. They just milked Christian conservatives for votes.

 

The tariffs were a states rights issue as well. One must remember that in the early to mid 1800's, states rights were very important to non-federalists.

 

I would expect to see secession as long as the Government, and more importantly, the Supreme Court, keeps trampling on the Bill of Rights. The 4th amendment was thrown out when SCOTUS ruled that police don't actually have to have a warrant to conduct a search if they suspect the law is being broken. And the 10th went out the window when they said states can no longer define marriage according to their own means (i.e. legislation or referendum).

 

In reference to Iraq, Britain knew exactly what it was doing. They drew the borders that way to prevent the unification of different clans and the formation of the next caliphate once the Ottoman Turks lost control. They completely undermined the work and promises made by Major Lawrence (of Lawrence of Arabia fame)

 

Europe's main problem will be Muslim immigrants. In a couple countries they are approaching 10% of the population. European countries have to stem the tide of Muslim immigration.

 

The United States might tear itself apart. It depends on whether we can find a way to allow others to live their lives as they see fit, or if the Government continues to find new ways to invade our privacy and take over our lives.

I for one am about fed up with a Government that ignores the law, arrogantly shows favor to it's "friends" while subverting it's "enemies" and forgetting what it's role in America was intended to be.